What would a betting market on USD losing reserve currency status look like? What question would you ask?

Pragmatism (Security) at OP Labs.
Prev: ConsenSys & Coinbase.

Attribs: Friendly, curious, introverted, mid-witted.
Chans: /eth-security /maurelian /stoicism




The only problem is externality pricing.

Building https://negationgame.com

That seems like a pretty solid indicator, though likely hard to agree on a definitive data source. 

I suppose there are two (interlinked) considerations, use as a medium of exchange and use as a store of value. So you could look for indicators of either. 

For store of value, perhaps rates on T-bills would be indicative.
As a medium of exchange, maybe forex volumes.

Couldn’t you just ask what % of global oil transactions are settled in USD?

Or do you want an observable that doesn’t require fact finding?

Trump wants to devalue the dollar in order to increase exports and reduce imports
A devalued dollar makes it not a safe haven. 
Here's a conversation I had with ChatGPT about it.

Trump wants to devalue the dollar in order to increase exports and reduce imports
A devalued dollar makes it not a safe haven. 
Here's a conversation I had with ChatGPT about it.
https://chatgpt.com/share/67efd049-469c-8009-9d0d-fbb3ace5528d

What factors (economic, geopolitical) would drive this shift?