✳️ dcposch pfp
✳️ dcposch
@dcposch.eth
They’ve been consistently early and right. Polymarket had Biden 25% to drop out months ago, while the media sheep herd started talking about it only after last week
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
What else are they predicting?
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
25% of drop out isn’t exactly a prediction that someone is dropping out. I’d say it’s the reverse if anything. Betting markets have existed forever. Polymarket just makes it easier for people in crypto.
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
25% a lot of confidence when no one has ever dropped out this last before.
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
I guess. Here’s the actual chart for this btw. Odds were at 10% a few weeks ago. But I don’t think you can read into it too much. Other than this is what the market thought.
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
Well, after that debate performance, it seems highly likely.
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
Yup. The market thinks more and more he’ll be replaced now
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
I really don't see any other option. Any YouTube politics host with a passing stage presence would have crushed that debate.
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
But reality is that an alternative candidate may struggle to win too. Will be tough for Kamala or Newsom to win too. But really it’s just up to him and his team. If they decide they want to go again then they will.
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
It really should be Kamala. The two biggest hesitations people have right now are age and Gaza. Kamala resolves both.
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
Feel like Kamala will stand with israel too: https://www.timesofisrael.com/good-for-the-jews-here-are-candidates-who-may-potentially-replace-biden-on-the-ticket/
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira pfp
Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
Unfortunately. She has openly called for a cease fire though.
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Elie pfp
Elie
@elie
Well everyone in israel wants a ceasefire too. But if Hamas remains in power there will be continual wars in the future too. Everyone wants a ceasefire. But israel wants the hostages back. And wants an end to the terror regime.
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