✳️ dcposch
@dcposch.eth
They’ve been consistently early and right. Polymarket had Biden 25% to drop out months ago, while the media sheep herd started talking about it only after last week
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
What else are they predicting?
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Elie
@elie
25% of drop out isn’t exactly a prediction that someone is dropping out. I’d say it’s the reverse if anything. Betting markets have existed forever. Polymarket just makes it easier for people in crypto.
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
25% a lot of confidence when no one has ever dropped out this last before.
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Elie
@elie
I guess. Here’s the actual chart for this btw. Odds were at 10% a few weeks ago. But I don’t think you can read into it too much. Other than this is what the market thought.
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
Well, after that debate performance, it seems highly likely.
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Elie
@elie
Yup. The market thinks more and more he’ll be replaced now
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Lauren McDonagh-Pereira
@lampphotography
I really don't see any other option. Any YouTube politics host with a passing stage presence would have crushed that debate.
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Elie
@elie
But reality is that an alternative candidate may struggle to win too. Will be tough for Kamala or Newsom to win too. But really it’s just up to him and his team. If they decide they want to go again then they will.
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