Katsuya
@kn
Prediction market has been touted as one of the potential killer apps of crypto, but no breakout product yet. Thoughts on why? My quick takes are 1) hard to get liquidity unless huge events like a presidential election, and 2) payout conditions and odds are hard to understand.
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William
@william
what if someone built GMX for prediction markets? overcoming slippage issue with a CFMM
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LDF
@ldf.eth
i think we should decouple them from $ people can be motivated by wanting to be right and not just speculating on what will play them
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yuga.eth
@yuga
Mostly regulatory hurdles IMO. Gnosis has a nice set of smart contracts for conditional tokens which effectively implement prediction markets.
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RM
@ramon
Couldn't you build / turn this into a kind of new form of insurance business?
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alex @ charterless.com
@alexstein
Liquidity is the big challenge. You need a lot of capital to make it worth investing energy in and a lot of liquidity to make it responsive. Second is probably that the more interesting markets aren't binary, and non-binary markets have complex UX.
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Ed O'Shaughnessy
@eddieosh
{I just don't get prediction markets. The likes of SSC tout them as some great insight into reality -- they just feel like a game theoretic to me; ppl betting against other ppl's opinions. This is just me revealing my ignorance tho.}
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sisun
@sisun
Polymarket?
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Surya
@surya
The whole point of shitcoins and perpetuals is to facilitate gambling to a degree. With such great liquidity there’s no reason to gamble in boring prediction markets
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Gary Basin
@garybasin
No one actually wants to bet on much of anything
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