If you had to bet who the leader in search is in 10 years, is it nascent AI tech (DALLE/GPT-3/Stable Diffusion) or Google?

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Was (pleasantly?) surprised how many folks believe Google will continue to be the leader.

I used to feel like this ~6 months ago, but as I thought through 1) where GOOG is as a company (its more Day 2 than Day 1), and 2) what the future modality of search looks like (it wont be a browser), I kinda changed my mind.

Design and software at Apple. Also into AI, philosophy of mind, ethics.

by search here do you mean question answering or do you mean finding a thing you think might exist (like an old article)?

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No one will do better than Google at web search.

I wonder in a non-browser/URL modality that favors open-ended questions and getting precise answers that doesn't involve you looking at links, if Google can keep up to pace as quickly as newer cos/technologies.

A big piece of this is where GOOG is in its lifecycle too

The question is, will anyone do better than Google at incorporating these technologies to search? Because they are moving as fast as anyone else. Have you seen T5?
The barrier to entry is processing all the relevant content on the internet as it is created. Google already has that. AI is a higher layer.

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None of the above. Decentralize search and discovery.

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I thinik that's right in the short-term, but I imagine that gets bundled up again so ppl go to one place to find the answer they're looking for.

I’d bet on AI fragmenting the search market into many search markets

IMO Google. I think they have taken what is likely to become the biggest disruption risk to their business and embraced it wholeheartedly. I think we'll see them introduce GPT-3/stable diffusion etc technologies within their existing search tools within months.

It doesn't mean there won't be other winners as well.

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Dark horse: TikTok. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/technology/gen-z-tiktok-search-engine.html

Absolutely AI tech. There are going to be so many remixes and modifications. The best search results will be an amalgamation across the spread of options. Google Search has already fallen behind. 

But Google themselves are investing so much in that space that they will certainly still be in the running.

Google for general purpose search but other LLM models for verticals with deep integrations (some of which might be also Google depending on the vertical)

Would think it’s more of a combo of both, I expect google adopts some of the nascent AI tech

Google. Existing search infra, customer base and experience to do deep vertical integration.