Prediction markets truly are a super valuable tool for making sense of events in real time.

Prediction markets truly are a super valuable tool for making sense of events in real time.

https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai

Could prediction markets incentivize anti-expected behavior? Eg:


1. Prediction Market launched about whether Person A will take Action X

2. “No Action X” is signaled (by others and possibly by Person A)

3. Person A loads on “Yes Action X” shares at very low price

4. Person A takes Action X & profits

building /bracket | talking /greatbooks | ex-BCG, ex-PHD | poli + phil + econ

That's kind of the point - step #3 moves the price and price movement and/or whale accumulation acts as a signal 

The extreme case where Person A commits fraud to intentionally manipulate the market is not itself without risk and would only work once at most

Why once only? They just need to create anonymous shells to do the purchasing. Can also distribute the buying (so doesn't have to appear as a whale)

Lots of people already take similar actions with tokens and NFTs and we have no idea who they are