Vitalik Buterin
@vitalik.eth
Prediction markets truly are a super valuable tool for making sense of events in real time. https://polymarket.com/event/sam-back-as-ceo-of-openai
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tldr (tim reilly)
@tldr
Could prediction markets incentivize anti-expected behavior? Eg: 1. Prediction Market launched about whether Person A will take Action X 2. “No Action X” is signaled (by others and possibly by Person A) 3. Person A loads on “Yes Action X” shares at very low price 4. Person A takes Action X & profits
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Jack Miller
@cosimojack.eth
That's kind of the point - step #3 moves the price and price movement and/or whale accumulation acts as a signal The extreme case where Person A commits fraud to intentionally manipulate the market is not itself without risk and would only work once at most
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