politics

Nate Silver saying it's a 50-50.

Polymarket saying it's 64-36 to Trump.

What does the market know that the polls and Nate don't?

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The question is why no one is jumping on those cheap Harris dollars selling for .36 cents on Polymarket.

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Although we won’t actually :(. Because everyone is saying that either side could win. 36% chance of winning isn’t small.

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No. Because Polymarket has the same odds as other betting markets.

It’s like any market, you don’t get different prices for btc on other exchanges. It’s roughly the same price everywhere or you’d have arbitrage opportunities.

May it be that polymarket is crypto-focused and among its users are a lot of Elon Fanboys that skew the numbers?

Could be an interesting case to study biases in prediction markets.