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Elie
@elie
Nate Silver saying it's a 50-50. Polymarket saying it's 64-36 to Trump. What does the market know that the polls and Nate don't?
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Arjan | That Poetry Guy
@arjantupan
May it be that polymarket is crypto-focused and among its users are a lot of Elon Fanboys that skew the numbers? Could be an interesting case to study biases in prediction markets.
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Elie
@elie
No. Because Polymarket has the same odds as other betting markets. It’s like any market, you don’t get different prices for btc on other exchanges. It’s roughly the same price everywhere or you’d have arbitrage opportunities.
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