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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
Why is internal campaign polling considered more accurate? What are they doing differently?
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Alex
@asenderling.eth
Nate Silver wrote a piece on this, seems like they're generally not more accurate https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-you-should-mostly-ignore-internal
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JC🎩
@jonathancolton
Internal campaign polling is used to target voters and there are tons of resources dumped into them. Including extensive voter interviews. Media conducted polls have much fewer resources and are not geared towards an outcome. https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2024/10/why-do-election-polls-seem-to-have-such-a-mixed-track-record/
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Jason Goldberg Ⓜ️ 💜
@betashop.eth
Internal polling is not more accurate. It’s just highly paid consultants saying that their polls are more accurate which campaigns tend to agree with because they are paying the consultants tons of money and it would be an admission of ineptitude otherwise. Caveat being if their internal pollster has some insight or methodology that the 3rd party polls are blatantly missing or ignoring. Even then though the internal Svengali is often wrong. Post election “our internal polls had us leading” is such a common refrain from losing candidates.
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Icetoad 🎩 🍕 🎶 🐈 💚
@icetoad.eth
Lol at internal polling. What a crock
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Ryan Rodenbaugh
@ryanrodenbaugh.eth
JD said that all of the public polls are not spending enough to get a wide enough sample. He talks about it at 1:49:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd8mmTDDqAs
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ash
@ashmoney.eth
they tell the candidate what they want to hear :)
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christopher
@christopher
Much larger, resampled, and frequented multiple times in specific locations/swing states. Public polls also run for longer so if you need data yesterday you’ll need to pay to expedite it.
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JC🎩
@jonathancolton
This is a particularly interesting take on Presidential polling and the current prediction markets. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/nate-silver-dont-trust-trump-swing-in-polling-prediction-markets.html
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Jared 🎩
@javabu.eth
I'm not sure if they are more accurate but I think candidates prefer their polling as they control the weights. It feels like pollsters are all trying to weight to the average right now. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/state-poll-results-show-ties-are-tied-voters-pollsters-rcna177703
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