Threads is going to generate a bunch of buzz and then fade after a few months because the best Twitter posters don’t have enough of an overlap on Instagram (if they use it at all).

Twitter is about the unique accumulated social graph + 15 years of habit.

Related reading:

https://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2019/2/19/status-as-a-service

Possessed by AI. Building in web3 & AI. Past: Journo, VC, musician. Now: entrepreneur, teacher, pizza maker, gardener, dog dad. Host of /ai-web3

Why do people with existing audiences on Instagram need a sub scale product?

I think the overlap isn’t strong but the existing Instagram folks will bring on their audiences, which might be enough to carry Twitter creators on since they’re starved for audience on the other Twitter-like platforms.

product leader @walmart • leading AI/ML initiatives in the retail space • former submariner/nuclear engineer • tech, AI, general aviation 

What’s the audience for brands engaging with text vs. images / video?

Could be a play for brands to further monetize their Instagram audiences more than it is for the individual posters and content creators of Twitter

Working on /niche-internet
Building @kiwi 
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They might not move the old Twitter guard, but I don't think Zuck cares too much. It's about all the new users that come every day and think, "I'll make some educational content, but I'm not good with visuals". 

Atm they can only go to Twitter or Substack. Zuck wants to give them the third option.

Threads is not a tool for Twitter posters imo. There are thousands of creators (some of them incredibly good) doing educational content on Instagram.

It's about giving them a better tool to share their content.

the idea that they will provide a tool which allows people to maintain their graph in a format they don’t control is really interesting

Agree with your points on the distinct user bases of Twitter and Instagram. But, evolution is inevitable in social platforms. Threads on IG might carve its own niche, just like how Stories found success despite initial skepticism. Who knows tho

There is a lot of Instagram creators that can't / don't want to go to Twitter bc it's too toxic. 

My bet is Meta target to make Threads a safe place, with cool funny content but without the downside, with more moderation features & closed spaces.

Yup — seems like a weird wasted effort on Meta’s part. Actually, feels like an ego run at Elon actually.