politics

One of my favorite subplots of the election is if @polymarket will accurately predict the election. 

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355083393913005
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355960741683432

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is winning: "Prediction markets are revolutionary! Much more accurate than polling."

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is losing: "Prediction markets are easily gamed by partisans!"

Political activist. Founder of mydemocracy.app and /advocacy. Host of the /politics channel. RCs may or may not = endorsements.

iirc, I think liquidity has been low for most elections prior.

so curious to see how accurate it will be 7 days / 3 days / 1 day before.

arguably more interesting is how many state sub-markets are accurate relative to polling.

I have been trying, unsuccessfully, to find the accuracy for the 2022 election. Will share if I find anything.

yeah, I find the overall election model to be the least interesting.

given there are a handful of states that matter and the vote margins are small, that seems to be more useful

The problem I'm seeing now is that people see 51% to 48% and think that will translate to vote share, when it's really still basically a coin flip.

If one candidate goes down to 40% on polymarket right before the election, and still wins, the other side is going to scream bloody murder about it having been rigged

I’m voting Trump but yesterday’s spike seemed entirely driven by 1 whale

Also, for the choice for Walz as VP, it only really moved 6-12 hours before the selection. Not a ton of signal in that IMO

Same for VP debate @micsolana

billionaire media tycoon and former mayor of san francisco. disinformation researcher. cmo @foundersfund. editor-in-chief @piratewires. 🏴‍☠️

I’m voting Trump but yesterday’s spike seemed entirely driven by 1 whale

Also, for the choice for Walz as VP, it only really moved 6-12 hours before the selection. Not a ton of signal in that IMO

Same for VP debate @micsolana  

https://x.com/piratewires/status/1842328392127131910?s=46&t=C7FEGX5VcQz2FQw4FjVjPQ