Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is winning: "Prediction markets are revolutionary! Much more accurate than polling." When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is losing: "Prediction markets are easily gamed by partisans!"
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Sean Wince 🎩
@seanwince
The problem I'm seeing now is that people see 51% to 48% and think that will translate to vote share, when it's really still basically a coin flip. If one candidate goes down to 40% on polymarket right before the election, and still wins, the other side is going to scream bloody murder about it having been rigged
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Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
yeah, I find the overall election model to be the least interesting. given there are a handful of states that matter and the vote margins are small, that seems to be more useful
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