politics

One of my favorite subplots of the election is if @polymarket will accurately predict the election. 

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355083393913005
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1843355960741683432

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is winning: "Prediction markets are revolutionary! Much more accurate than polling."

When Polymarket says your preferred candidate is losing: "Prediction markets are easily gamed by partisans!"

I’m voting Trump but yesterday’s spike seemed entirely driven by 1 whale

Also, for the choice for Walz as VP, it only really moved 6-12 hours before the selection. Not a ton of signal in that IMO

Same for VP debate @micsolana

billionaire media tycoon and former mayor of san francisco. disinformation researcher. cmo @foundersfund. editor-in-chief @piratewires. 🏴‍☠️

I’m voting Trump but yesterday’s spike seemed entirely driven by 1 whale

Also, for the choice for Walz as VP, it only really moved 6-12 hours before the selection. Not a ton of signal in that IMO

Same for VP debate @micsolana  

https://x.com/piratewires/status/1842328392127131910?s=46&t=C7FEGX5VcQz2FQw4FjVjPQ