Content
@
0 reply
20 recasts
20 reactions
Ferran 🐒
@ferran
1/2 My forecast for 2025 is that the integration of Farcaster’s social layer in Coinbase Wallet will be a spectacular failure. We'll probably see a spike when it comes out of beta (after all, there’s a segment of Coinbase Wallet users who enjoy trying out new things and if they do it well people will try it out) but I predict that by the end of summer, no more than 5% of messages will come from there, and DAUs via Coinbase will be negligible. The reasons? Current Farcaster status quo simply isn’t appealing outside an extremely narrow niche. People don’t want a social layer tied to their wallets. And 99% of people don't give a fuck about financial incentives (basing a significant part of your growth strategy on that is shooting yourself in the foot. It’s a massive trap that could be very difficult to escape from). Continue...
16 replies
8 recasts
64 reactions
Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
thanks for sharing my main response is to point out that every path is risky and likely to fail— the name of the game is taking the right risks! if you aren't willing to take a contrarian bet that seems unlikely to succeed you won't disrupt the established players that have more resources and network effects than you, if the path was obvious they'd already be doing it for ex I can see your point no one is asking for social feeds in their wallets right now, but I also see hundreds of millions of creators generating hundreds of billions of dollars for platforms and seeing a relatively minuscule amount of that returned to them, and they're starting to wake up and say wait why is someone else profiting off my content, and something at the intersection of social + wallet being an answer to that that doesn't mean to current iteration of the CBW app is going to be a huge success or that MM has found the magic answer and won't pivot its strategy ofc but not having PMF is the default and shots much be taken
1 reply
0 recast
9 reactions
Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
I do appreciate you taking to the time to think and think having you + the FC community asking questions and noodling on better positionings for Farcaster is Good
1 reply
0 recast
4 reactions
Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
also want to respond to this: 1) TikTok spent $1b paying creators before it found success 2) there's a risk to appealing to too narrow but there's a risk of trying to boil the ocean and end up competing head-to-head with incumbents that have huge moats in capital and network effects. early growth in social networks almost has to start by appealing strongly to niche commonuities, dominating those niches, and then growing outside of it
1 reply
0 recast
2 reactions
Ferran 🐒
@ferran
Thanks for engaging @deodad! It makes me happy that there is always room for discussion with the MM team! First, I have a genuine question: What's MM current strategy to attract content creators to Farcaster? I missed Farcon and idk the details. I will extend a bit more my thoughts, answering your comments: My main feeling is that there's a core misalignment in strategy. Farcaster is a decentralized protocol but MM go-to-market feels overly centered on bringing developers inside a kind of technically open but “closed ecosystem” (being the perfect UX/UI client for that Warpcast with miniapps) rather than expanding the protocol itself and its utility. Honestly, that's a risky play Compare this to Bluesky, they're clearly prioritizing protocol adoption. They're integrating diverse projects (e.g. Flipboard) and new apps (e.g.Skylight), with them giving utility to different niches. They also have growth spikes for sure, but their long-term approach feels more solid to me. Continue...
2 replies
0 recast
1 reaction
Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
the arrow of casuality is users -> projects, not projects -> users the Bluesky protocol wasn't what brought the users in the first place, it was just a reaction against Elon and the right wingification of X yes the narrative of being decentralized played a role in shaping that narrative but 99.999% of those came onto BS for a more politically aligned network
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Tony D’Addeo
@deodad
once there were millions of users it spurred additional projects like Flipboard integration and Skylight and guess what? neither Flipboard or Skylight are built on a decentralized protocol, both integrate directly with Bluesky APIs they are bluesky clients not atproto clients https://fediversereport.com/bluesky-report-110/
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
