What are the cases for why this is just a mid-bull pullback vs. why we are entering a bear?

This is one of the more convincing charts imo. I would expect exchange volume around peak bull to be significantly higher than it was in Dec 2024 relative to both April/May 2021 (peak) and the bottom of the months since (trough)

https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot/cryptocurrency-exchange-volume-monthly

a lot more activity on DEXs this time around, right?

yes but not enough to change my expectation above

https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/dex-non-custodial/dex-to-cex-spot-trade-volume

this chart looking like entering the bear, no?

you buying that chart? mainly because CEX volume didn't peak above '21?

nah sorry worded poorly. meant the DEX trading volume chart, kinda irrelevant tho tbh. of course i hope you're right lol

as in am I buying this dip? i'm not. if I was, it wouldn't just be because of that chart but a combination of things. but I'm not because I'm content with the bulk of my crypto allocations for now. just playing at the margins and with new stuff during the bull market