What are the cases for why this is just a mid-bull pullback vs. why we are entering a bear?

This is one of the more convincing charts imo. I would expect exchange volume around peak bull to be significantly higher than it was in Dec 2024 relative to both April/May 2021 (peak) and the bottom of the months since (trough)

https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/spot/cryptocurrency-exchange-volume-monthly

yes but not enough to change my expectation above

https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/dex-non-custodial/dex-to-cex-spot-trade-volume

a lot more activity on DEXs this time around, right?

Beer snob, O.P.I.U.M., pups, sogs in that order