politics

People are quick to dismiss Polymarket odds but they're missing two things:

1. The shift is real according to Real Clear Politics swing state polls. Harris is on a downward trend since she adopted conservative talking points.

2. While forecast shows a Trump win within the margin of error, it's normal for expectation to be exaggerated in prediction markets. Similar in other betting sites.

I told you.

Most recent Real Clear Politics polling average. Not Polymarket, not other prediction markets either.

Liberals can ignore data at their own risk, but the more Harris leans right, the worse she does. This is exactly what happened to H. Clinton.

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Yeah :/ You'd think Dems would've learned from what happened to HRC

It’s not just leaning right, but leaning right in all the worst ways. Voting for her feels like voting for George Bush in some ways. Being a real liberal (little “L”) would have been great but I think it’s too late now.

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Thanks. Not even an analysis, it was just data sitting right there!

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It was rather obvious they were going to lose once the Cheneys endorsed (and Dems accepted)

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Yeah sometimes simple avg works better than overcomplocating the analysis

Yep, RCP is the way. I think it is even better than Five Thirty Eight

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Umm according to the data I shared, Jill Stein isn't winning :/ Pls check the graph again.

Can’t wait to see what Jill Stein’s first 100 days looks like!

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respect for seeing things a lot more clearly than I did! I was so confident that Harris would get at least one swing state. (Wisconsin at the very least) and I put my money where my mouth is on Polymarket. I am now broke.