politics

People are quick to dismiss Polymarket odds but they're missing two things:

1. The shift is real according to Real Clear Politics swing state polls. Harris is on a downward trend since she adopted conservative talking points.

2. While forecast shows a Trump win within the margin of error, it's normal for expectation to be exaggerated in prediction markets. Similar in other betting sites.

I told you.

Most recent Real Clear Politics polling average. Not Polymarket, not other prediction markets either.

Liberals can ignore data at their own risk, but the more Harris leans right, the worse she does. This is exactly what happened to H. Clinton.

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