I'm having a heated debate (it's friendly, don't worry) with some VC friends at dinner. 

Need your help!

What happens next with interest rates?

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That's been the prevailing alternative position at the table

Smarter people than me have argued that they'll look for an excuse to lower interest rates as we're getting closer to the elections. Right now they don't have a good argument to take action, but if unemployment goes up maybe they'll use that as their excuse.

Before election function of 
 real job creation (not nominal), real (full time) wages, housing, spending, investment, foreign currency reserves, expenditures like war and Gov’t transfers. I’m only being slightly facetious.

I believe the economy will baseline and the Feds won’t want to shake the pot till after el