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Ben - [C/x]
@benersing
What’s the difference between timing and luck?
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Jonny Mack
@nonlinear.eth
clarity of thought, conviction, risk-taking, action
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Elie
@elie
There may be some luck involved. Predicting the future is a game of probabilities. E.g. 30% chance we have agi in 2 years. 50% within 5 years. 20% we never have it. Or replace agi with some other belief. As with any bet, you can make an EV calculation. But reality is that if you’re betting on some future event to happen you’re going to have a tough time. It can work out. Like it did for Axie infinity or opensea or coinbase. All being ahead of their time. But many businesses don’t need to rely on an unpredictable future. Their destiny is in their own hands.
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Samuel
@samuellhuber.eth
If you write it down with EXACT time + prediction and are right it may have been luck but do it a few times and it is highly likely timing
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links 🏴
@links
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Prep doesn’t mean jack unless opportunity arises. Max your opportunity chances, I guess.
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Breck Yunits
@breck
I'm world class at spotting black swans early but have done a shit job at managing cash flow and have often repeatedly sold too early (https://sellnothing.com/). I would have been so much "luckier" had I just practiced better cash flow management, sales, and fundraising skills. Instead I just put everything I had into developing GOAT programming skills. My next arc will be getting better at cash flow.
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Zach Davidson
@zd
Timing is about deliberate prep; luck is about random chance. Timing is within your control; luck is not.
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tani
@tanishq
Incidental vs Coincidental
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Max Miner
@mxmnr
Intentional preparation
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accountless
@accountless.eth
intention
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