Founders

correctly predicting the future is insufficient for success. you must also predict when it will happen. if your predictions (convictions) are correct but on a timeline that exceeds your runway you die. surviving and thriving requires being both right and right on time

What’s the difference between timing and luck?

Building something new. Host: /venturecapital /adventures /theitinerant

There may be some luck involved. Predicting the future is a game of probabilities. E.g. 30% chance we have agi in 2 years. 50% within 5 years. 20% we never have it. Or replace agi with some other belief.

As with any bet, you can make an EV calculation.

But reality is that if you’re betting on some future event to happen you’re going to have a tough time. It can work out. Like it did for Axie infinity or opensea or coinbase. All being ahead of their time.
But many businesses don’t need to rely on an unpredictable future. Their destiny is in their own hands.

Building getinboxzero.com and sharemint.xyz.

I also run a YouTube channel, "Learn from Open Source": youtube.com/elie2222 

I think every founder needs some lucky. But also if you’re persistent you’ll hit that lucky. If you roll the dice 10 times you’ll get a least some wins.