brad.base.eth
@b05
1/ Are we heading towards a Chasm of Chaos with AI? Someone on X asked for theories of change in the next few years. This is what I see as inevitable before we usher in a potential age of plenty… nirvana. [1-5 years] * AI, Agentic software, Robotics, Quantum tech, and 3D printing see exponential increases in effectiveness. If truly efficient and capable quantum is realized then this timeline accelerates dramatically * All 3 start eating eating away most jobs * Companies race to acquire other companies in their segments to stave off race to bottom on pricing as efficiencies dramatically increase. * Companies that didn't go 💯 in AI die off rapidly * Supply chain begins to shrink * Lack of income decreases global sales * Crypto becomes the defacto payment system
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brad.base.eth
@b05
2/ [5-10 years] * Markets begin to collapse * Governments attempt UBI and that works for about 5 minutes * Supply chains start to collapse * More localized & efficient and large scale 3d printing/robotics starts killing mass manufacturing * Shortages abound until can be compensated for locally with printing and robotics * UBI no longer works, because no revenue to pay for it and printing $$ loses power. The race to the bottom dynamic makes it worse.
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Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
Why do shortage abound if more efficient and localized large scale robotics and mass manufacturing begin to be able to compute? Wouldn't that increase abundance?
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brad.base.eth
@b05
Eventually, but initially supply chains won’t keep up/sustain because of holes where companies die or have shortages from other companies. Filling in the gaps is high risk and I think collapses will just make it worse. The ramp up to local/3d will take time and investment. Not sure timing on that if pre or post chasm to make up the holes in supplies.
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Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
why will companies die?
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brad.base.eth
@b05
Companies will die because significant drops in revenue from consumers losing jobs to AI/robotics and because increase in efficiencies by AI creates a race to the bottom for pricing and companies that didn’t optimize don’t survive. Some winners will fill the gaps, but I think it happens so fast that chaos results in the supply chains because too many gaps at once. I’m admittedly making a lot of assumptions, but even the relatively minor supply chain disruptions of COVID seem to point to the vulnerabilities for me.
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Connor McCormick ☀️
@nor
I think that's self-defeating logic. if there are significant competitive pressures on goods then that should mean that costs fall precipitously and people are richer.
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brad.base.eth
@b05
Yes, those with actual incomes are richer, but there is likely to be significant job losses across all industries. Can't see as the tech advances exponentially how there aren't. In addition as competition drives prices downwards, more companies will fail/be consolidated which results in even more layoffs and more focus on using AI to replace employees. Just don't think the supply system will be able to fill in the gaps rapidly enough and there will be shortages from even those that can. My expertise is obviously not in supply chains or manufacturing, so I could be completely wrong about supply chains, but as I mentioned even smaller disruptions of COVID had significant impacts on supplies and this I think will be much more widespread and impactful. A lot of uncertainty for everyone because so much of the world is interlinked.
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