EthFinance

A friendly reminder that it has historically taken ~20 years for inventions to diffuse into mass-market innovations.

Ethereum’s invention of programmable money and smart contracts is barely ten years old. The roadmap is finally starting to click into place, and Pectra(s) next year will  be a leap forward with AA, Verkle trees, based rollups, etc.

The next ten years will see gradual architecture ossification and rapid adoption along the S-curve.

Drivers for that adoption will include real-world asset tokenization, an explosion in stablecoin usage for payments and remittance, TradFi using DeFi rails for loans and investments, and a trustless marketplace of autonomous agents capable of transacting through their own on-chain identity.

Forget about today’s shitcoins, ETHBTC ratio, Gary Gensler, and all that transient noise. Zoom out and the future is both bright and obvious.

Ten years from now, we will be writing “in retrospect, it was inevitable”.

You’re not bullish enough about Ethereum, anon

PhD in aviation ∩ climate science | Aviator, diver, ETH maxi, nexialist | Host of /diving /ethfinance /eth-staker /geopolitics /science /singapore /thomas

I'm a believer. Another ten years for multiple generational wealth seems like a good trade.

We're so early.

I get same vibes with farcaster

Hmm, the more recent, the sharper adoption though. See color TV, see VCR, see internet, see cell phone.

Bitcoin / Ethereum / crypto should've been adopted a lot faster than sth like VCR. Casino killed the computer star.

https://chainleft.art

Dad, data scientist, blockchain native artist.

Power consolidation=evil.

RCA “invented” the color TV in 1953 (following a 1940 parent), the first color broadcast was performed in 1965, and color TV sales only exceeded B&W in 1972: ~20 years

Magnetic tape recording for video was invented in the 1950s but saw adoption from 1976 onward in the mass market: ~20 years

TCP/IP was standardized in 1978 after ten years of ARPANET development. Mass adoption happened from 1995 onward: ~20 years

First commercial cell phone prototype was in 1973, 1G networks opened in 1983 in the US, but GSM norm adoption picked up from 1991 onward: ~20 years

The 20-year cycle is actually pretty robust - see the diffusion of innovations framework (Rogers, Christensen, etc).

In blockchains, databases existed since the 1960s, public-key cryptography since the 1970s, and P2P tech since the late 1990s. But 2014 was when the first smart contract platform we know as Ethereum was released. We’re barely ten years in and still missing a few blocks for mass adoption incl. AA, UX, TPS, etc

!remindme 10 years

Hmm, the more recent, the sharper adoption though. See color TV, see VCR, see internet, see cell phone.

Bitcoin / Ethereum / crypto should've been adopted a lot faster than sth like VCR. Casino killed the computer star.

https://paragraph.xyz/@unmediatedthoughts/casino-killed-the-computer-star

Yes, Ethereum will be the credibly neutral settlement layer where the world’s valuable assets will be traded — including BTC, but wait until we have *actual* digital gold on chain! Nobody buys physical gold in size, it’s all paper trades anyway — so they will be tokenized too

Interesting so this week about tge development of wrapped btc do you think this would impact eth future

All past data points exist under the assumption of available abundant and cheap energy. What’s the future 10 years of we lift this assumption (all others being equal) ?

"Ethereum's future is bright and inevitable. Adoption will come slowly but surely. Focus on the long-term potential, forget the noise."

I would add that Ethereum seems likely to be the leading home for digital cultural artifacts that are ownable, durable and programmable too, which may further open up new markets for digital culture, entertainment and the arts.

Engineering

creating and destroying; built flying cars & autonomous vehicles, now building /faust, more here: /july, web: july.rocks

most of those technologies on the curves are general, and the early iterations did not survive into the longest part of it – ARPANET beget the successors NSI, CSNET and NSFNET which kicked off the federal internet exchanges, and then finally broader commercial entry and innovation which became the Internet as we know it today.

Parallel analogues would place Bitcoin into ARPANET, Ethereum into NSFNET, which means something far larger is coming...

subtle counterpoint: https://warpcast.com/cassie/0x18fea517

I don't want to brag too much but I've put aside all the Eth I've earned in these years because I'm convinced of what you say even if I don't understand anything about markets and finance. 😅

microsub.

I'm supporting you through /microsub!

38 $DEGEN

(Please mute the keyword "ms!t" if you prefer not to see these casts.)

I'm supporting you through /microsub!

270 $DEGEN

(Please mute the keyword "ms!t" if you prefer not to see these casts.)

I feel you bro, but still we need to figure out how each of us could be impactful in this, what will you advice…

Innovations in Ethereum are maturing rapidly and will see widespread adoption in the next decade. Ignore the noise and focus on the bright future ahead