Geopolitics

If a campaign is starting to explain why the polls are wrong or “unskewing them,” you should rebenchmark their chances to the downside. 

That the Trump team is doing this the same day as Harris crossed 50% in Nate Silver’s model is exceptionally bad though; suggests her momentum will continue.

If a campaign is starting to explain why the polls are wrong or “unskewing them,” you should rebenchmark their chances to the downside. 

That the Trump team is doing this the same day as Harris crossed 50% in Nate Silver’s model is exceptionally bad though; suggests her momentum will continue. 

https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1820153881071886689?s=46&t=6pIOBuXCDYR3MDdqas9hTg

Former SEC/CFTC/House&Senate staffer. Now Policy@Paradigm. Perennial Optimist.

Remember a couple weeks ago when everyone thought the assassination attempt sealed the deal? They were so unprepared for Harris, kinda shocking really.

Coinbase employee (Investigatooor), personal account. Onchain is the future.

Devotional polytheist living a monastic lifestyle centered on curiosity, simplicity, and joy.  Exploring the intersection of technology and spirituality.

My pet theory is that even with Biden bowing out, he could have gained more of a boost from the attempt if he actually changed his marketing strategy to be more 'unifying', and importantly chose a more moderate VP. But I think his inability to do that is so baked into who he is that it was never going to happen.

I was quite annoyed with how certain people were that the assassination attempt was a clincher for the race.  With as fast as news moves now, I knew that something would come along to knock it out of the spotlight, and sure enough, it did.