Geopolitics

If a campaign is starting to explain why the polls are wrong or “unskewing them,” you should rebenchmark their chances to the downside. 

That the Trump team is doing this the same day as Harris crossed 50% in Nate Silver’s model is exceptionally bad though; suggests her momentum will continue.

If a campaign is starting to explain why the polls are wrong or “unskewing them,” you should rebenchmark their chances to the downside. 

That the Trump team is doing this the same day as Harris crossed 50% in Nate Silver’s model is exceptionally bad though; suggests her momentum will continue. 

https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1820153881071886689?s=46&t=6pIOBuXCDYR3MDdqas9hTg

Former SEC/CFTC/House&Senate staffer. Now Policy@Paradigm. Perennial Optimist.

Remember a couple weeks ago when everyone thought the assassination attempt sealed the deal? They were so unprepared for Harris, kinda shocking really.