Ansgar

@ansgar.eth

249 Following

188771 Followers

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Agree! It's funny how this is true again now - I had such a hard time deciding which of the two to go into in 2016. Did some AI, but realized I was more passionate about crypto. No regrets! I will say though - I am not sold on the idea that the overlap between the two will be particularly meaningful in the near term.

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I'd highly recommend participating in the election prediction markets! They are a very interesting new addition to our sense making toolkit, and the best way to build intuition around them is by having skin in the game.

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538 quality has pretty clearly cratered after Nate Silver's departure. He had a good in-depth article about it a few months ago: https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election

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Many things to legitimately criticize Donald Trump for, but the Harris campaign tweeting out a video of him marveling at the SpaceX rocket booster catch - one of the most impressive feats of engineering in recent history - as if that somehow deserved ridicule is sad. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1848878029193560424

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Latest Elon video game video accidentally includes the audio recording of a SpaceX starship flight 5 review call (the one where they caught the booster) he was on while playing. Super interesting to get a glimpse of the SpaceX internal operations! https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1849914261482652113

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Oh I don't (necessarily) believe she will win! Just that as of this very moment, her odds are better than 35% to do so. I similarly had a pretty large Trump position when his odds were at 45% a few weeks ago, because that seemed clearly undervalued. Then I exited that position (at a profit) as the odds swung.

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Polymarket Trump odds do seem a bit high. I just bought additional $1000 worth of Kamala shares at 35.4%. Seems +EV. Although of course chances are the market indeed knows better than me.

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Come watch @shilpa and me battle for the Dominion crown in a bit over an hour!

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Haha I can’t go down without a fight!

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Gm Starbase! Today is going to be my first ever time watching a rocket launch in-person - looks like I picked a good one! https://x.com/spacex/status/1845424870655398102

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But it also means our messaging is caught somewhere in between. "Best of both worlds", while I deeply believe is actually true, doesn’t seem to be a clear enough message.

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Right, must have been some sort of block. I was just confused when the ping didn't just fail, but returned from a different address. Never seen that before.

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I was unfortunately already off the train by the time I read this. Didn't have time to investigate further.

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Can someone explain what's happening here? On train WiFi, when pinging 1.1.1.1 I get a normal response, but when pinging 1.0.0.1 (both are Cloudflare DNS servers) I get a response from the train router instead.

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Context: https://x.com/nathanpmyoung/status/1832694333599785319

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So embracing the market way of fixing this is the antifragile solution.

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I don’t want to specifically defend these markets, not sure they are useful. But the general point is, any such inefficiency contains its own reward for fixing it. So if something like this keeps happening, someone will spend the effort to build a model to detect and immediately arb back out such manipulation.

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In general my guiding principle in these questions is "don't solve via rule enforcement what can be solved via markets", even if those markets sometimes need some time to mature and become efficient.

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Not sure I agree actually! These types of temporary market inefficiencies just provide incentives for actors to come in and bring them back to the true equilibrium. E.g. in my case I bought some more (cheaper) shares once I noticed the drop. Given that my underlying conviction didn't change, that was free money.

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