Just a quick reminder: Balaji doesn't need Bitcoin to hit $1M to profit on his bet.

If he owns $2M in bitcoin, and it goes up to 40k per coin, he has already broke even on a 1M bet. 

If he owns $10M, he only needs it to go up to 30k.

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Cynical, maybe not. But rational hedger? Yeah I think he knows the math. (Also I believe 1M just isn't a lot of money to him)

Though this is true I don’t believe he’s a cynical actor

Exactly this. The more he already holds the smaller the movement he needs to make it worth it.

And what are the alternatives? E.g. if he spent a million dollars on marketing how much would he be able to move prices? Barely at all.

The real question is whether it's a rug or hodl play.