Just a quick reminder: Balaji doesn't need Bitcoin to hit $1M to profit on his bet.

If he owns $2M in bitcoin, and it goes up to 40k per coin, he has already broke even on a 1M bet. 

If he owns $10M, he only needs it to go up to 30k.

Writing about DAOs @ charterless.com.
Ex-FB, Amherst College.
Always an Eagles Fan.

Though this is true I don’t believe he’s a cynical actor

Midwest mom in a California dad bod || Ruthlessly pro Farcaster

Cynical, maybe not. But rational hedger? Yeah I think he knows the math. (Also I believe 1M just isn't a lot of money to him)