IMHO probability in crypto and AI in 2024:

Convexity: E = WC

Online Learning: E = o(WC)

Auctions, Staking, RL: E/WC <= Poly(1/n), Expected/Best Case >= c’Poly(1/n)

Neural nets, PoW, ZK, FHE: Pr[|X - WC| < ε] <= exp(-E)

MEV: BC - E >= 1/n^c


WC = Worst Case
E = Expected
BC = Best Case
n = dimensionality

ヽ(⌐■_■)ノ♪♬ @ @gauntlet/🤖Ventures/tldr/Aera \\ ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Struggling with the nature of randomness \\ main: @gaa \\ /red-bull /defi-research maxi

def crypto_ai(year, convexity):
    if convexity: return WC
    return min(1/n**c, exp(-E))

crypto_ai(2024, False)