Marc Andreessen
@pmarca
Ask Me Anything! Tech, business, politics (tech related), startups, venture capital, finance, life. 💪🫡
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will
@w
after a decade of low interest rates (2010s), do you think we'll have a decade or more of higher interest rates or are today's high rates a ~blip and we'll be back to zirp ~shortly?
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Marc Andreessen
@pmarca
I never make macroeconomic predictions, HOWEVER, I don't see why the forces that led to sustained falling inflation/deflation across the developed economies for the 40 year run-up to 2020 are any different now?
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will
@w
what are those forces in your opinion? globalization may have been a big one that is different now (not sure I think that, but it is at least arguable)
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Marc Andreessen
@pmarca
Ben Bernanke's concept of the "global savings glut" -- a fundamental and enduring imbalance between accumulated financial savings, and productive projects to invest in. Demographics are part of this, but a lot of it is policy choice.
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will
@w
agree a lot of it is policy choice -- ostensibly this is something deficit-nations have changed their mind on recently (trump tariffs, biden's IRA, EU blocking china EVs, etc) yet the glut continues to grow
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will
@w
1/ do you think resistance is futile? 2/ if we assume success (deficit-nations develop policy to reduce their [trade] deficits), does that necessarily lead to higher natural rates?
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