onthebrink

Founding Partner @ Castle Island Ventures; co-host of On The Brink w/ Castle Island; previously @Fidelity

Independent Ethereum educator, angel investor and advisor. 

Founder of /thedailygwei.

Ethereum and CryptoPunks OG | EIP-1559 co-author | Solo Staker | Angel Investor

@sassal.eth & @eric.eth believe "Ethereum ETF nearly certain, predicting significant inflows"

While @mattwalshinbos & @nic say "Ethereum ETF unlikely soon, expect lengthy legal battle or underwhelming inflows"

who is right?

There’s a contract on polymarket that tracks approval by end of May, which right now sits just under 40%

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You can also look at the ETHE discount to NAV, which for GBTC really narrowed after the SEC lost vs Grayscale. ETHE’s discount has stopped narrowing since spot BTC ETF launch. Conclusion looks similar to polymarket pricing.

Deciphering markets. Making forecasts. Understanding underlying drivers. www.praxisveritas.io

This doesn't push the covo forward as Sassano dismisses both of these in his show if you care to listen.

I agree with his take that these are weak at best and lean much more towards it get denied bc Gensler hates crypto and he is needed as the final vote.

This doesn't push the covo forward as Sassano dismisses both of these in his show if you care to listen.

I agree with his take that these are weak at best and lean much more towards it get denied bc Gensler hates crypto and he is needed as the final vote.

https://youtu.be/hXk2N-TwKF8&t=128s

To me its an absolute coin toss (at this time).

As Matt and Nic said its never been about the law  (Implying its always been politics.)

Gensler is anti-crypto politics.

Gensler is the deciding vote on BTC and will be for ETH.

Likely Gensler will go whichever way the political winds are blowing.

Blackrock was clearly an important signal for the BTC ETF process. It filed for its own spot ETH ETF in Nov 2023. What would be the strategy in capriciously denying an ETH ETF at this point? The SEC would almost certainly lose any challenge and its efforts to regulate crypto lose further ground.