Wild Wild Money

Most people think crypto is mid-cycle with room to grow.

This is wild to me. Frustration with memecoins and availability bias from years of struggles are keeping people from seeing the forest for the trees.

Crypto deregulation, government adoption, institutional adoption, AI agents, Layer 2s, and other new infra are all potential step changes. We don’t yet know how any of this will play out, but their convergence feels like the beginning of something much bigger. 

I’m team supercycle here.

we’ve had nearly two years of up and to the right, don’t think we’re early time-wise in this cycle. consensus for potential tops are march 2025 or oct/nov 2025.

the ETF dynamic will likely smooth out the lows, though, so remains to be seen if we still get ~ 70% drawdowns on majors as in previous cycles.

we could also see a BTC supercycle with limited drawdown meanwhile alts do the usual -80% or more.

building /juicebox | product marketing & growth | prev. NounsDAO, RAW DAO | learning to code

just yesterday the most retarded zoomer i know told me it’s been impossible to lose money trading [redacted] on leverage

that’s all imma say🥸