tldr (tim reilly) on Warpcast

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The greatest strength comes from knowing your own weakness. My overarching thesis is that history is running in reverse. So the countries that had a great 20th century are on track for a tough 21st, and vice versa. For example: China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe were crushed by socialism. Now they are capitalist and unified to varying degrees. So their overall trajectory is up. Meanwhile, Woke America and Western Europe were once capitalist and unified. But now they’re woke with broken borders and bankrupt states. So their overall trajectory is down. Like Dalio and Elon, I believe the coming sovereign debt crisis will end 500 years of Western dominance (and also take down Japan). Failing states will get extremely nasty. I think China rises. I think the Internet succeeds the West, and opposes China. I also think Bitcoin Republicans can maybe turn Florida into a Taiwan equivalent, where capitalists take refuge. But most aren’t ready to hear this. They still think the postwar order will last.

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tldr (tim reilly)

Have you written about or referenced what the "call on US debt" might actually look like? I haven't seen it, and it feels like it will make your argument more compelling. Since people have been raising alarm about this for 20+ years, my sense is that many simply believe that the US can continue to use the world as its credit card because it would be too devastating for the world to call them on it. (And also, if they did call them on it, what would the actually do to enforce it? Would it not be tantamount to an act of war?) The fundamentals of your point actually resonate with me on a deep level – that debt becomes due – but it's worth asking when and why and how it will actually precipitate, since it has been able to persist for quite a while.

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tldr (tim reilly)

Related point: One of the strongest counter-points to the decline of the west thesis is parallel to what @dwr.eth said on MOZ in the episode about your Bitcoin bet. It was something along the lines of "Yes, the things you're saying are true... but the fact is that the best people overwhelmingly want to live in the places that are only accepting western fiat currencies. So what's the point of moving primarily to BTC or RMB if you have to live in Saudi Arabia or China to use it?" ^ it seems like this kind of quality of life momentum can have a lot of force. (Yes, until it doesn't. But still.)

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“The best people overwhelmingly want to live in the places that accept western fiat currencies” This isn’t true for several reasons 1) First, millionaire migration map shows that since 2020 the millionaires are going to Dubai and Singapore, not the US 2) Second, a lot of tech talent now works remote as you can see from nomadlist.com 3) Third, the US and EU are admitting millions of low skill immigrants along with a few high skill ones 4) Fourth, the US and EU as governments are waging all out lawfare against their tech guys 5) Fifth, there are now many high IQ people choosing to stay back in China (or other ascending countries) because quality of life is better than blue cities 6) Next, within the US high income people are moving out of blue states to red states 7) Finally, many tech and finance guys recognize that there is a sovereign debt crisis coming (Dalio, Elon, even Jamie Dimon) and hence have moved right So: all of that is vote of no confidence in Blue America and the fiat regime.

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