balajis on Warpcast

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balajis pfp

The greatest strength comes from knowing your own weakness. My overarching thesis is that history is running in reverse. So the countries that had a great 20th century are on track for a tough 21st, and vice versa. For example: China, Russia, India, Eastern Europe were crushed by socialism. Now they are capitalist and unified to varying degrees. So their overall trajectory is up. Meanwhile, Woke America and Western Europe were once capitalist and unified. But now they’re woke with broken borders and bankrupt states. So their overall trajectory is down. Like Dalio and Elon, I believe the coming sovereign debt crisis will end 500 years of Western dominance (and also take down Japan). Failing states will get extremely nasty. I think China rises. I think the Internet succeeds the West, and opposes China. I also think Bitcoin Republicans can maybe turn Florida into a Taiwan equivalent, where capitalists take refuge. But most aren’t ready to hear this. They still think the postwar order will last.

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balajis pfp

One problem is most Westerners don’t know how tragic the fate of the East was in the last century. The bad guys did win, for generations. Communism crushed billions of lives. There were wealth seizures and mass murders. And of course communism posed as good, as being for the workers and peasants. But it was really just for the Communist Party. Right now in the West we have a woke ideology that poses as good. As being for women and minorities. But it’s really just for the Democrat Party. And the violence of BLM/antifa/Hamas is just a preview of what is to come. Drug addicts will squat in your house. Assets will be seized. Homes burned. Roads blocked. Propaganda will blot out the skies. Already happening, but it’ll escalate. Blue states in particular are bankrupt. Red states may survive if they break away in time. All this is just like what the East suffered last century. But few understand. They think that it can’t get that bad in the West. They fear AI but not neo-Bolshevism. They’re wrong.

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stringtheory pfp

@stringtheory69

What are examples of ascension in Eastern Europe? how about Africa?

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tldr (tim reilly) pfp

tldr (tim reilly)

Have you written about or referenced what the "call on US debt" might actually look like? I haven't seen it, and it feels like it will make your argument more compelling. Since people have been raising alarm about this for 20+ years, my sense is that many simply believe that the US can continue to use the world as its credit card because it would be too devastating for the world to call them on it. (And also, if they did call them on it, what would the actually do to enforce it? Would it not be tantamount to an act of war?) The fundamentals of your point actually resonate with me on a deep level – that debt becomes due – but it's worth asking when and why and how it will actually precipitate, since it has been able to persist for quite a while.

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Duraa pfp

What do you mean by saying violence of blm / antifa/ hamas is just a preview of what coming and do you think any county from the middle east will rise?

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Luffy pfp

Any 3rd world countries will rise too?

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standpoint.degen.eth 🎩 pfp

standpoint.degen.eth 🎩

@standpoint.eth

You theory is so full of inconsistencies and paradox, starting with an obvious confusion between socialism and communism, two totally different ideologies. Most of Western Europe has been socialist for more than half of the 20th century - this makes your post indigestible.

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kevin mfer 🎩 pfp

kevin mfer 🎩

conc; the internet isnt american and neither is bitcoin

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Ed O'Shaughnessy pfp

Ed O'Shaughnessy

Western Europe will be the first to fall off the "Seneca Cliff". With few natural resources, declining industry & STEM, and having shot itself in the foot by sanctioning Russia, the Energy Costs of Energy (ECoE) will fracture its fragile financial structures. "But energy is different – we become poorer if our society has less of it, or if we have to pay a higher material price for it. The relevant metric here is ECoE, which measures the proportion of energy which, being consumed in the energy access process, isn’t available for any other economic purpose." https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2024/07/22/284-maybe-later/

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Sujit 🇮🇳 🎩 pfp

Sujit 🇮🇳 🎩

Important (and scary) read! Western Europe has already fallen, America is rapidly falling!

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Kyle Patrick pfp

@kylepatrick.eth

Few understand cycles Few study cycles Few.

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@chasing-pointers

Except China isn't capitalist, nor largely is Russia. Having market elements =/= being capitalist. All communisms and socialisms have market dynamics because neither are economic models, but are instead ideologies that impose a layer of distortion atop the market. I don't disagree with most of your conclusion but (a) you're likely ahead of the reality and (b) since war causes capital destruction, predictions are based on discontinuities and are therefore largely unknowable.

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NutellaCrepe 🎩🍖Ⓜ️🎭 pfp

NutellaCrepe 🎩🍖Ⓜ️🎭

@nutellacrepe.eth

Can I have this framed?

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highplains.base.eth

The word woke is just empty rhetoric and a red flag.

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Kreept.degen.eth pfp

Kreept.degen.eth

What’s the chance of 3rd world countries rising though?

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DzeeRoggs pfp

I don't understand why you oppose capitalism to woke. These aren't opposing systems... Western Europe is capitalist. Also USA is (even more extreme than Western Europe) capitalist. What I feel like you mean by woke are topics that are meant to divide people, planted (maybe even by far right or authoritarian elements) on the internet and reaching out irl leading to violence in extreme cases - the intention is destabilization (which helps every autharitarian narrative). You can only do this if there is discontent among the people already which would then have been an effect of capitalism failing more and more people. "Woke" (as a synonym for all the dividing topics people feel like they have to go all in on for god knows what reasons) is not the cause of discontent, it's the fuel amplifying it or the valve channeling it.

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Chris24.Ξth 🎩 pfp

Chris24.Ξth 🎩

I still see no solution offered. I agree with your outlook, but you lost me when you blame Woke America. Since 2000, decisions made by both parties have rapidly advanced the decay of America. We will likely fulfill your prophecy, but because our leaders have us fighting each other instead of our true problems. Not because of the woke, but all those asleep at the wheel blaming the other side while the world burns.

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samvox pfp

This is a different view from the changes ahead. I am curious to understand the reaction of Asia and the Middle East and their performance in this situation

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samvox pfp

Which countries will be optimistic and proactive and accept these challenges with open shoulders?

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build/capy 🅵🆃📄 pfp

build/capy 🅵🆃📄

I think China is not as good as it seems cause real estate crisis It affects a huge part of the economy

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