Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
What’s the value of owning the timeline topic for 24 hours in both crypto and tech?
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
yeah but then you need to factor in that going forward people will take him less seriously which can be more than a million
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
all of this is just https://i.imgur.com/VraOvck.jpg
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
i don‘t get it
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test In this situation, people are going to reinforce their belief based on priors. :)
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
yeah ok but his betting math is still silly and it seems he slipped. That’s independent of the bet. The more unlikely outcome has the better odds and he overpaid. The bet is interesting but the set up is wrong or not?
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
You can make money permissionlessly betting against this https://polymarket.com/event/balaji-bet-btc-1m-usd-on-june-17
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
Na I don‘t care about betting. I’m happy if BtC goes to 1M USD. I‘m just saying his math is weird and he hasn‘t clarified and there‘s a bunch of his fans coming to the rescue now. But I still don‘t get it
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Dan Romero pfp
Dan Romero
@dwr.eth
To be clear: I disagree and don’t think it will happen.
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timdaub pfp
timdaub
@timdaub.eth
IMO the spectacle is not: Balaji is forecasting BTC to rally. The spectacle is: Balaji is an important person to our space and he acts not like usual (people are worried for him).
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Aaina pfp
Aaina
@aaina
he’s playing his own game and making a point. chaos can be useful, who is anyone else to say what’s usual or worry? worry is a weirdly oppressive attempt to exert one’s own beliefs onto a situation
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✳️ dcposch on daimo pfp
✳️ dcposch on daimo
@dcposch.eth
honestly i think this is his usual. he has consistently prioritized SPICY TAKE over intellectual honesty or details like whether the math makes sense for over a decade now. (once in a moon, he hits the jackpot this way, like when he predicted covid would turn into a global catastrophe in Jan 2020.)
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