Don’t you think that would bias the results? 

Like if lots of his followers check it out because he talks about it and lots of other candidates followers literally have never heard of it, the results are kinda meaningless.

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Certainly possible. Markets are more truthful with greater liquidity and participants and when those are limited it can skew the odds.

Even so, there is skin in the game and the participants who are wrong lose money.  This makes markets with even limited liquidity more truthful than media imo

I think there’s value in your concept here, in tandem with other info sets. Still I wonder, couldn’t trump just go “let’s throw $1M of our marketing budget at bets on polymarket to shift the narrative”

Right, sorry, I’m not familiar with the scale

Would take more than $1M but yes your point is a good one