Brian R

@thetinyant

78 Following

14 Followers

Brian R pfp

Historical post-halving #Bitcoin performance has been exceptional….but we’ve never gone into the halving ~at an all-time high, and the marginal decline in emissions is now ~immaterial 🍿🍿🍿

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RISING NEGATIVE CATALYSTS ❌ Mt. GOX repatriating 142k BTC thru Oct ❌ potential US govt selling of $2.3b Silk Road BTC ❌ seemingly greater reg risk around USDT ❌ others, like US govt legal wins, enforcement actions, CEX collapses, etc

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WANING POSITIVE CATALYSTS ❎ halving will pass shortly ❎ monster retail spot ETF inflows moving lower (even if GBTC outflows fall, and with solid long-term wealth manager buys) ❎ spot ETH ETFs likely to be denied ❎ Fed cuts potentially pushed out

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BTC AT ATH Self-explanatory, but makes the set up much tougher

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With 52% confidence, I am turning more negative on crypto prices due to: 👉 BTC at ATH 👉 Waning positive catalysts 👉 Rising negative catalysts In more detail,

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Can anyone kindly point me to an analysis around restaking yield post EigenLayer launch? Believe EigenLayer is a huge catalyst for ETH due to materially increasing Ethereum's settlement TAM & increasing ETH's moneyness. But curious if there will be enough initial AVS demand to support material restaking yield near-term

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Brian R pfp

For anyone interested in a real-time discount for the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), here is the calc

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Plus, BTC and ETH are the gateway, as individuals and institutions start there. As they get exposure to the majors, many will look to the alts over time

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Brian R pfp

Lots of institutional investor concern on the spot bitcoin ETFs being negative for Coinbase. This misses the forrest for the trees: the ~entire reason BTC doubled since Oct is due to the ETFs, which incited & increased volume on Coinbase. If it wasn't for the ETFs, Coinbase would be printing numbers like it did in 1H23

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a few MOAR: *Narrative until recently was ETH is dead *Retail not back yet *Easing central bank monetary policy *Successful Dencun upgrade *Full bull activity = greater deflation *Restaking enabling Ethereum to move beyond its VM / consensus (increases settlement/security TAM, moneyness)

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The experts I'm seeing give May approval odds between sub-50% to 70%. Almost everyone however, thinks its only a matter of time (if denied in May, the SEC will get sued, and approval moves to 2025)

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Brian R pfp

So, a denial in May would likely be on the grounds that ETH spot and futures markets don't meet the SEC's correlation threshold, which they haven't disclosed. And there is some speculation that the ETH correlation may look worse, since the look back period encompasses a period just after Eth futures were launched

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A US court called the SEC's denial of Grayscale's proposed GBTC conversion "arbitrary and capricious" bc the SEC failed to explain why it treated futures & spot ETFs differently In theory, this holds for ETH, but one major requirement for "like treatment" was that the spot and futures markets are closely correlated

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Message SEAL 911 on TG https://securityalliance.org/

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I just subscribed to @tim on Paragraph! Check it out:

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