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Kaprekar
@kaprekar.eth
Feels to me like an ETH ETF is highly unlikely this year given that the SEC voted 3-2 to approve BTC and Gensler was the deciding vote. Gensler’s hand was forced on BTC due to the courts, but unclear that ETH has the same legal advantage. What am I missing?
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Sassal.eth 🎩⛽
@sassal.eth
For all intents and purposes a spot BTC and spot ETH ETF are the same product. ETH already has futures ETFs approved and the SEC lost in court to Grayscale because they denied the spot BTC ETFs even though there were futures ones already. If the SEC denies the ETH ETFs, the lawsuits against them will be staggering.
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Brian R
@thetinyant
A US court called the SEC's denial of Grayscale's proposed GBTC conversion "arbitrary and capricious" bc the SEC failed to explain why it treated futures & spot ETFs differently In theory, this holds for ETH, but one major requirement for "like treatment" was that the spot and futures markets are closely correlated
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Brian R
@thetinyant
So, a denial in May would likely be on the grounds that ETH spot and futures markets don't meet the SEC's correlation threshold, which they haven't disclosed. And there is some speculation that the ETH correlation may look worse, since the look back period encompasses a period just after Eth futures were launched
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Brian R
@thetinyant
The experts I'm seeing give May approval odds between sub-50% to 70%. Almost everyone however, thinks its only a matter of time (if denied in May, the SEC will get sued, and approval moves to 2025)
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