Ethereum

Feels to me like an ETH ETF is highly unlikely this year given that the SEC voted 3-2 to approve BTC and Gensler was the deciding vote. Gensler’s hand was forced on BTC due to the courts, but unclear that ETH has the same  legal advantage.

What am I missing?

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For all intents and purposes a spot BTC and spot ETH ETF are the same product.

ETH already has futures ETFs approved and the SEC lost in court to Grayscale because they denied the spot BTC ETFs even though there were futures ones already.

If the SEC denies the ETH ETFs, the lawsuits against them will be staggering.

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Gensler stopped calling ETH a security 6+ months ago and the SEC started using the language of "most cryptoassets are securities" instead of saying "all cryptoassets except BTC are securities".

ETH was also not included in the SECs lawsuits against Coinbase, Binance and Kraken.

Ok, I think this makes some sense. Still seems odd that Gensler won’t admit that ETH is not a security, which seems to be a hedge about how he’ll treat ETH. But agreed, if they denied it they would face more lawsuits. Your reasoning makes me believe the current polymarket odds are reasonable.

A US court called the SEC's denial of Grayscale's proposed GBTC conversion "arbitrary and capricious" bc the SEC failed to explain why it treated futures & spot ETFs differently  

In theory, this holds for ETH, but one major requirement for "like treatment" was that the spot and futures markets are closely correlated