With 52% confidence, I am turning more negative on crypto prices due to:   

👉 BTC at ATH
👉 Waning positive catalysts
👉 Rising negative catalysts  

In more detail,

Ex Citadel, Balyasny hedge fund analyst.  Crypto research @GSR.io. Views are my own. NFA. 

BTC AT ATH 

Self-explanatory, but makes the set up much tougher

RISING NEGATIVE CATALYSTS 

❌ Mt. GOX repatriating 142k BTC thru Oct
❌ potential US govt selling of $2.3b Silk Road BTC
❌ seemingly greater reg risk around USDT
❌ others, like US govt legal wins, enforcement actions, CEX collapses, etc

WANING POSITIVE CATALYSTS

❎ halving will pass shortly
❎ monster retail spot ETF inflows moving lower (even if GBTC outflows fall, and with solid long-term wealth manager buys)
❎ spot ETH ETFs likely to be denied
❎ Fed cuts potentially pushed out