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TaylorWebb.eth Ⓜ️🤘
@taylorwebb.eth
gm ☕ I’ve been investing in the Web3 space for over 9 years now, and want to share what I’ve learned and how I invest. You guys already know I’m very bullish on Moxie - this thread isn’t about Moxie, its about investing in Web3 projects in general. None of this is financial advice, I’m simply sharing what I’ve learned and what has worked for me. 🧵👇
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TaylorWebb.eth Ⓜ️🤘
@taylorwebb.eth
1/ Don’t trade I define trading as buying and selling on a short time horizon - hours, day, weeks - trying to time the market price changes. IMO price movements in the short term are just noise, and can’t be predicted any more accurately than a coin toss. Now add trading fees to the equation and it becomes obvious that the average trader loses money - its a negative-sum game. This why I have zero FOMO about all the memecoin mania happening on Solana. Sure, there are some people making lots of money, but most are probably losing. It’s a casino. On average the casino wins, not the gambler.
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Freytrades🎩📈
@freymon.eth
well i agree with this but i wont say don’t trade, ill say don’t trade only if you don’t know what you are doing or to phrase it better if you don’t have the right mindset/belief for it. You are most definitely correct when you say trading is gambling when you narrow it down to a single trade, it’s all just probabilities and you can never be sure about a trade it’s not possible (that’s why you need an edge) there is a RANDOM distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables (mathematical models) that define an edge and an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
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Freytrades🎩📈
@freymon.eth
well what all my yapping boils down to (and this is only talking about your no1) is with the right set of models, edge and a probabilistic mindset, you can overcome the no1 advice/rule of “DON’T TRADE”
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TaylorWebb.eth Ⓜ️🤘
@taylorwebb.eth
This is true - if you are able to find some kind of statistical edge in the market I do believe it is possible to be consistently profitable. However in my experience these edges tend to disappear shortly after they emerge - the more this edge is traded the more it tends to go away
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