The Success Syndicate

gm ☕ 

I’ve been investing in the Web3 space for over 9 years now, and want to share what I’ve learned and how I invest. 

You guys already know I’m very bullish on Moxie - this thread isn’t about Moxie, its about investing in Web3 projects in general. 

None of this is financial advice, I’m simply sharing what I’ve learned and what has worked for me.

🧵👇

Moxie maxi • solidity dev • prev mechanical engr • EVMav#1256 • we all die - the goal isn't to live forever, the goal is to create something that will

1/ Don’t trade

I define trading as buying and selling on a short time horizon - hours, day, weeks -  trying to time the market price changes. IMO price movements in the short term are just noise, and can’t be predicted any more accurately than a coin toss. Now add trading fees to the equation and it becomes obvious that the average trader loses money - its a negative-sum game. 

This why I have zero FOMO about all the memecoin mania happening on Solana. Sure, there are some people making lots of money, but most are probably losing. It’s a casino. On average the casino wins, not the gambler.

2/ Past prices can’t predict future prices

Ok this take might be a bit more controversial, but I am calling out technical analysis here as being almost entirely BS. 

For those that don’t know, technical analysis is using math or patterns of historical prices on the chart to try to predict future prices. Trendlines, fibonacci levels (lol), pattern drawing, indicators like MACD, RSI - IMO none of this works, and when I see stuff like this posted I always ignore it.

Imagine trying to drive your car by only looking in the rear view mirror. 
That’s technical analysis.

3/ Have conviction in something because of fundamentals

By fundamentals, I’m talking about things like:

 - Does it provide a new utility to users?
 - Does the project have revenue, how much?
 - What is the long term vision?
 - How big could that vision realistically become?
 - How strong is the protocol design / tokenomics
 - How strong is the founding team? Are they long term aligned?
 - How strong is the ecosystem around it?
 - How strong is the branding & marketing?
 - Does the project have space to grow into?
 - How big is the target market?

These are just some examples of fundamental metrics I think about, but there are countless others that can be useful. All that matters is how strong these fundamentals are right now, and that is what will drive future prices.

I started buying BTC in summer of 2015 because I did a lot of research and found myself very bullish on the fundamentals of BTC. Not many people focused on historical prices would have made this entry.

4/ Buy & hold what you have conviction in

Now you simply buy & hold what you have conviction in.

Fundamentals drive what you have conviction in
What you have conviction in drives what you hodl

It’s pretty simple, you just diamond hand as long as you like the fundamentals

Short term price drops don’t bother you because that doesn’t affect fundamentals

Others verbally attacking your project doesn’t bother you because that’s not fundamentals

5/ Contribute

So you’ve got your conviction, your bags are filled, now what?

Contribute!

You are now a partial owner and financially aligned with the success of a project that you truly believe in. This is exciting! 

The logical thing to do now is:
whatever you can to help the project succeed.

By 2020 my conviction had shifted from BTC to Ethereum. I learned how to build smart contracts on the EVM, and in 2021 it became my full time career. 

It might not seem like you can make a big difference, but remember that’s all these decentralized projects are - lots of little contributors all over the world that are aligned on making the project succeed.

Ok that ended up being way longer than I intended, but I hope its helpful fam and happy Friday 💜

No one cares about your story until the Win ,
So Win !

From now on I'll not trade because you're absolutely right here

Gmmm Taylor 

I completely agree with your perspective on trading. The short-term price fluctuations can be unpredictable and often lead to unnecessary stress and costs due to trading fees. Focusing on long-term investments seems like a much more strategic approach!

well i agree with this but i wont say don’t trade, ill say don’t trade only if you don’t know what you are doing or to phrase it better if you don’t have the right mindset/belief for it. 
You are most definitely correct when you say trading is gambling when you narrow it down to a single trade, it’s all just probabilities and you can never be sure about a trade it’s not possible (that’s why you need an edge)
there is a RANDOM distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables (mathematical models) that define an edge and an edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another