politics

polls were still more accurate than prediction markets lmao

because knowing is finding the limits /bettik founder /outercorps stalwart

Not really. Market overreacted to Selzer outlier. Prediction markets trailing 7 day average was ahead of all the polls.

vast majority of polls were very stable at calling the states just on either side of the line. prediction markets were extremely volatile. only useful for financial purposes

prediction markets were productive for hedging, that’s for sure. i hope they stick around for those purposes. i just wouldn’t count on them to foresee the future, just like i wouldn’t use futures markets for that purpose