I don't think big tech layoffs are because the companies got bloated, it's because rates went up. 

If the ROI (including opportunity cost of capital) on a marginal hire is positive they should be hired. 

As rates increase the opportunity cost of capital increases so this calculation changes.

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do you think any big tech co approached and measured hiring this way?

I think every big tech company does this which is why the profitable ones increased headcount

I don’t think any big tech co knows how to measure the ROI of an incremental hire at this level of sophistication

Agreed. They just look at the macro picture and compare sales/revenue metrics with expenses.