siddhant

@siddhant98

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I think Ethereum rainbow chart is unreliable because the asset has fundamentally evolved in utility over the years. Rainbow charts don't include the impact of events like 1559, beacon chain upgrade, proto-danksharding.

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Maybe that is because it's evolving in utility continuously, what ETH was in 2021 is very different picture compared to today

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Insights from Pendle PT/YT Market on stETH (DEC 2025 Expiry) Data Tracked: 1. $stETH price 2. no. of long-yield txns 3. no. of short-yield txns In the last six months Long yield dominance 📊 Users consistently bet that ETH staking yields would beat 2.8% APY — signaling deep confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals. Short yield spikes before price crashes: 🚨 PT positions surged before stETH sold off — notably during February–March 2025 macro fear (tariffs, monetary tightening). Volume collapse post-crash: ⏬ Activity cooled after the drop — showing risk-off behavior — but without flipping the fundamental long bias. Pendle isn’t just a trading venue. It’s a real-time pulse of crypto market sentiment — if you have the tools to tap into it. (And reading live positioning is way better than waiting for narratives to catch up.) Query link: https://dune.com/queries/5028963/8326757/403392c3-985a-408f-81cc-9b85bd28c331

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Pendle users were signaling a major ETH crash before it happened — and most people missed it. (Yes, you can spot macro shifts just by tracking Pendle yield flows.) 🧠 Pendle Finance is a revolutionary platform for leveraged yield trading — but it’s more than that. If you know where to look, Pendle yield flows reveal micro-level sentiment shifts across crypto markets, especially for ETH staking. The catch? Pendle’s interface is built for trading, not research. But Pendle is an on-chain protocol. You can directly query Pendle’s smart contract data through platforms like Dune. That's exactly what I did. By writing my own DuneSQL queries, I pulled Pendle's raw transaction-level data and mapped out user behavior across PT (Principal Token) and YT (Yield Token) trades on stETH markets. Here’s what I uncovered 👇

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Bearish on weekly charts but bullish on monthly

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Resolv Protocol Approach It flips Ethena's script🔁 What if we stake some of the ETH deposits to use the yield to incentivize the market to underwrite $USR?🤔 That’s the role of $RLP — Resolv’s risk + yield-bearing token. - Any $ETH collateral above 100% flows into the RLP pool. - RLP is tokenized buffer capital earning high APY, currently ~15.88%. - In return, RLP holders underwrite USR’s risk: liquidation losses, negative funding, CEX blowups. - RLP yield adjusts dynamically to keep the system solvent. It earns almost 2x the APY of $stUSR but takes on significantly more risk. ⚠️ In this design: - $RLP = real-time, market-priced risk exposure. - $stUSR = safer, stable yield. $USR = truly decentralized and on-chain — zero CeFi exposure. Resolv = decentralized reinsurance Ethena = private insurance Both aim to protect the peg. One does it with tight internal controls. The other lets open markets absorb volatility.

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Ethena Keeps Risk In-House. Resolv Throws it to The Crowd 👇 Both protocols mint ETH-backed, delta-neutral stablecoins — but their approach to risk couldn’t be more different. Let’s break it down: Ethena Finance Approach - Model: centralized and controlled. - Maintains a ~101% collateral ratio — efficient, tightly managed. - Houses risk in a $60M insurance fund. - The fund includes $USDtb, $USTB, and $USDS. - Minting and redeeming $USDe is gated, whitelisted & KYC’d users only. - During stress events, only insiders can stabilize the peg via arbitrage. It’s capital-efficient, but the tradeoff is centralized control over access and risk management.

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Even Small Dislocations can Nuke Your Stack 🌋 🧪 ezETH markets are ~75% smaller than wstETH. 💣Thinner liquidity = higher price impact under stress. ⚠️ Spread alone eats ~¼ of your liquidation range At 13.8x leverage, even a routine unwind in ezETH can push the peg just enough to get liquidated. If you're in, track the spread. Exit fast if it widens. (3/3)

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Liquidation If $ezETH Drops 2.36% vs $wstETH 🧨 Factors influencing their price differential: 📏 ezETH/wstETH spread = 0.6% on Uniswap 📌 ezETH's higher yield creates price premium. 💎wstETH trades deeper, stable market (2/3)

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61.5% APY on ETH Restaking? 🤔 Platform: Contango 🤝 Ethereum Contango’s ezETH/wstETH gives 13.8x exposure to $ezETH (6.81% APY) using $wstETH as borrow. But the buffer before liquidation is just 2.36%. This isn’t passive income. It’s a high-stakes looping trade. Let’s break the risk 👇

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Execution moved to L2, no demand for gas, too much liquidity. And honestly, ADA is still in top 10 and it's got nothing going on for years

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Great for users, terrible for stakers

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$USR vs $USDe: High-Level Differences Insurance Model: - Resolv uses a dual-token system. A separate token, RLP, absorbs all risk to protect USR (→ more on this in the next post). - Ethena uses a centralized insurance fund with assets like USDtb, USTB, and USDS. Minting Access: - USR can be minted by anyone using stablecoins like USDC — fully permissionless - USDe is mintable only by whitelisted, KYC-cleared participants - But both are liquid on secondary markets Yield Snapshot (as of April 2025): sUSDe: ~4% APY stUSR: ~9% APY RLP (Resolv’s risk pool token): ~15.88% APY If both use the same delta-neutral engine, what really sets them apart? It’s in how they handle risk — and who carries it.

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What do Ethena and Resolv Protocol have in common? - Both are delta-neutral: they hedge $ETH + $BTC exposure using spot + short perp positions. - Both offer staked variants — sUSDe (Ethena) and stUSR (Resolv) — that earn yield. - Both draw yield from: Staked ETH rewards + Perpetual funding rates (when longs pay shorts) They look similar on the surface — but the architecture begins to diverge.

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Can Stablecoins be Both Decentralized and Capital Efficient? That's the promise behind Delta-neutral Stablecoins - But not all designs are created equal. What’s the most decentralized and capital-efficient stablecoin? We can think of stablecoins along a spectrum. - On the far left: fiat-backed stables like USDC or USDT: capital efficient, but not decentralized. - Toward the middle: Maker's sDAI: decentralized, but not capital-efficient (overcollateralized). Then there’s what’s emerging on the far right: delta-neutral stablecoins like $USDe and $USR, both decentralized and capital-efficient. But are they built the same? Let’s set the stage 👇

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New stablecoin on the block: Resolv Protocol ⚖️ Like Ethena — delta-neutral backed (long spot & short perps) 📈 <4 months live, already hit $550M TVL (10% of Ethena) 💰 $RESOLV token coming (TGE TBA) ⌛ Pendle on Base has two point-farming plays live 👀 Solid pickup for early airdrop farmers

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Very interesting. @ignas put it brilliantly comparing it with the state of $ATOM, where the token doesn't accrue the value of its robust ecosystem.

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📉 ETH’s price is lagging—has its role in Web3 changed? ETH last hit $4,800 during the DeFi boom, but in 2024-25, it’s underperforming BTC. Why? DeFi is fragmented across multiple chains. L2s now handle most transactions, reducing mainnet gas demand. ETH demand is shifting from dApps to staking & settlements. Ethereum is evolving from a transactional asset to a settlement token, solidifying its role as Web3’s security and data availability layer.

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That is a good point, thinking of Ethereum as a robust settlement layer (which is the direction its heading) makes data like transactions less relevant.

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📊 Is ETH becoming more of a speculative asset than a utility token? Ethereum’s transaction data suggests a shift: Token transfers up 22.7% in Q4 2024, but 63.95% were wallet-to-wallet & stablecoin moves. DeFi transactions fell to 17.42%, signaling lower ETH demand in dApps. MEV activity dropped to just 2.49%, reducing speculative arbitrage. With DeFi users migrating to L2s & L1s like Solana for cheaper, faster transactions, ETH is increasingly used for asset movement rather than network-driven activity.

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