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siddhant
@siddhant98
Pendle users were signaling a major ETH crash before it happened — and most people missed it. (Yes, you can spot macro shifts just by tracking Pendle yield flows.) 🧠 Pendle Finance is a revolutionary platform for leveraged yield trading — but it’s more than that. If you know where to look, Pendle yield flows reveal micro-level sentiment shifts across crypto markets, especially for ETH staking. The catch? Pendle’s interface is built for trading, not research. But Pendle is an on-chain protocol. You can directly query Pendle’s smart contract data through platforms like Dune. That's exactly what I did. By writing my own DuneSQL queries, I pulled Pendle's raw transaction-level data and mapped out user behavior across PT (Principal Token) and YT (Yield Token) trades on stETH markets. Here’s what I uncovered 👇
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siddhant
@siddhant98
Insights from Pendle PT/YT Market on stETH (DEC 2025 Expiry) Data Tracked: 1. $stETH price 2. no. of long-yield txns 3. no. of short-yield txns In the last six months Long yield dominance 📊 Users consistently bet that ETH staking yields would beat 2.8% APY — signaling deep confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals. Short yield spikes before price crashes: 🚨 PT positions surged before stETH sold off — notably during February–March 2025 macro fear (tariffs, monetary tightening). Volume collapse post-crash: ⏬ Activity cooled after the drop — showing risk-off behavior — but without flipping the fundamental long bias. Pendle isn’t just a trading venue. It’s a real-time pulse of crypto market sentiment — if you have the tools to tap into it. (And reading live positioning is way better than waiting for narratives to catch up.) Query link: https://dune.com/queries/5028963/8326757/403392c3-985a-408f-81cc-9b85bd28c331
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