potentially wild take but

us recession would be good for crypto prices

crypto's main product today is giving retail investors hopes and dreams of becoming wealthy

poor people -> more demand to make money on the internet -> more crypto volume -> more paper wealth -> higher crypto prices

and lower rates

will delete if i'm wrong

imo US recession will take the savings out of the poor people by function of loosing jobs and less social aid (unless US prints and accepts becoming an Emerging Market regime for real for real)

with less excess funds the bid on crypto will not be there outside of folks with excess capital (rich) buying the dip

you'd need US Dollar inflation for crypto to go up since as of now crypto still trades as speculative vehicle being driven by excess cash and chase of higher returns then stocks, bonds and other investments

the fundamental of crypto (BTC, etc) as ultimate gold and therefore inflation hedge will make it move up inline with dollar inflation, but so far BTC hasn't hedged the USD well

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