politics

As a datapoint on prediction markets, they don't sell truth. They have basic incentives and as long as you care more about projecting a certain truth than you do safeguarding your capital, you can make it say what you want. Or maybe you believe that projecting the truth will make it the truth. 🤷‍♂️ I guess we'll know in a few days. https://www.wsj.com/finance/betting-election-pro-trump-ad74aa71

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I've been thinking about the incentives for all services like this that want to act like they are sources of truth on one side but on the other side claim they are just platforms where other actors express their free speech. FB taught us this. Policing contributors is hard. Nobody wants to do that.

its certainly worth $30M in fake internet money to russia to try to influence an election, for example.