skininthegame

Biden doesn’t drop out shares getting attractive, market is way too confident imo

Polymarket

my hunch is the average polymarket user is a bit more risk-on and a bit more right-biased. so things like kamala % nominee or biden % dropping out are overpriced in the short term but probably still the leading likelihood options.

Yeah agreed, although I’m also skeptical of this “markets are closer to the truth” meme going around

Polymarket is highly biased towards the more fun outcome. It’s more social  than hard core rationalist.

the volume may not exist to fully realize that meme, but one could argue that hyperstition is the point. these predictions can be compelling as long as the cost of attack remains high enough.